Alberta Governmet Communication re: Kyoto

November 26, 2002 | Updated: February 6, 2003 | See also: Kyoto Speakers Series: Murray Smith, |

Update

It's now February 6, 2003; I'm not holding out any hope for Mr. Vincent's strong assurances of a reply...

Background

I have been attending the Kyoto speakers series (now over) at the University of Calgary recently. I haven't been to every one, but did go to Murray Smith's recent presentation, which was basically cheer-leading for the Alberta Plan (article forthcoming).

Anyway, I asked Murray Smith (during the question period) what research convinced him that GDP growth was strongly correlated (or causally related) to carbon dioxide emissions growth. He basically didn't know; I was directed to the government Web site; I had previously checked this site for such analysis and found none, so double-checked during some of the other questions.

I then re-invited Mr. Smith to answer my question, and he suggested he could ``fill my hat'' (while also facetiously suggesting I give him my work number, implying I didn't work). I offered to give him my contact information after the presentation, and did so.

After asking my second question and suggesting that I would publish any answer on the Alberta IMC one Gordon Vincent approached me and offered to answer my question as he handled communications for the Alberta Energy Board. We also exchanged contact information.

Nearly a week passed.

Having not yet received any information from either person, the following email exchange took place (if anyone wants the ``originals'' in a better format to verify the GnuPG signature, email me):

My Request

To: gordon.vincent@gov.ab.ca, murray.smith@assembly.ab.ca
Subject: Kyoto Speakers Series
From: Mike Warren <mike@mike-warren.com>

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Greetings,

During Honourable Murry Smith's presentation for the U of C's
Kyoto Speakers Series, I invited him to provide me the economic
analysis which convinced him that GDP growth was strongly correlated to
emissions growth in first world economies.

Mr. Vincent approached me afterwards and said the he might also
be able to provide such information.

Unfortunately, I have not yet heard back from either of you and
my article on the talk -- which was over a week ago -- is nearing
completion. Is this economic analysis forthcoming? Is it perhaps
already on its way via post? Electronic copies are preferable,
of course, but anything will do.

Again, my contact information:

Mike Warren
(403) 282-7030
#31 Chisholm Crescent NW, Calgary, AB
T2L 0Y9

Thanks for your time,

- --
mike [at] mike [dash] warren [dot] com
<URL:http://www.mike-warren.com>
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Gordon Vincent's Response

I have excised the attachements, the HTML version and the inclusion of my original message (above), but can forward the ``original'' to anyone who would like it. [Update: My hard-drive melted down again on November 29, and I have no backups of these emails. Sorry.] 

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Message-ID: <FAE8FFBFB37EB746900AAA078C93D892021F1FA4@eoaexch1.doe.min>
From: "Vincent, Gordon" <Gordon.Vincent@gov.ab.ca>

To: 'Mike Warren' <mike@mike-warren.com>, murray.smith@assembly.ab.ca
Cc: "Moran, Charlotte" <Charlotte.Moran@gov.ab.ca>
Subject: RE: Kyoto Speakers Series
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 17:18:18 -0700
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Mike:

Thanks for your Email this afternoon.

This is the first time I've heard about a deadline
or that you're in fact writing an article. As a trained
journalist, I was taught it's not only ethical to
put that type of information out in the open, it's
a requisite.

What also concerns me is that you've got your
article "nearing completion" having received nothing
from me. I wouldn't call that very objective reporting,
would you?

So tell me, Mike, have I been doing your homework for
you and now you're stuck?

I would hope that while you were waiting for information
you would be paying attention to Industry Canada's own
report about economic impact of climate change as was
detailed in the front-page story in the National Post
yesterday.

It revealed the federal government is underestimating the cost
of implementing the Kyoto protocol by as much as 30 per cent.

According to that front-page article, the report has been kept
under wraps since early last summer as its findings contradict
the rosier economic forecasts the federal government prefers
to use.

The new study predicts Canada's energy industry in particular
will see tremendous losses in investment, employment and output
by 2010 - two years before the treaty is supposed to be fully
implemented.  It predicts:
  Coal industry: 48% decline in investment, 21% decline in employment
  Crude petroleum and natural gas sectors: 33% decline in investment, 14% decline in employment
  Refined petroleum sector: 55% decline in investment, 27% decline in employment

If that won't affect GDP, I don't honestly know what will. IN
the crude petroleum and natural gas sectors alone, Mike, that
translates into $2 billion per year of forgone royalties.

But Mike, be assured that if I gave you my word, as I did, that
I was not neglecting your request. So, in light of your
looming deadline, I will forward complete research papers
as time now does not permit my staff to extrapolate
GDP/emissions correlations on your behalf.

In the main, numerous studies have been undertaken by
governments, such as the Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics (ABARE), and by consulting firms on
behalf of industry.

Dr. Ross McKitrick, University of Guelph, lists a number of
readings relevant to environmental economics on his Web site
at
<<http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/teaching/econ210.html>>

For your convenience, I have attached a report on this topic,
which is readily available on the Government of Saskatchewan Web
site.

Finally, you may find these other papers of interest:

Sincerely,

Gordon Vincent
Energy Communications
780-422-3667

The attachments which Mr. Gordon included for my ``interest'' were:

I seriously hope this isn't the extent of the government's position, containing just one paper (with no author, and no published date, etc.) even remotely related to any GDP growth/carbon dioxide emissions growth relationship; one would hope a full literature review (at least) was done before a decision was made. More frustrating, though (at least more information about the Government's position is apparently forthcoming), is the tone of the letter and the inclusion of the Bjorn Lomborg article, which has been roundly rejected by the scientific community.

I wrote Mr. Vincent back, hoping for more information (which has yet to arrive, although it is only Monday) and to clarify my intensions:

My response

To: "Vincent, Gordon" <Gordon.Vincent@gov.ab.ca>
Cc: murray.smith@assembly.ab.ca
Subject: Re: Kyoto Speakers Series
References:
<FAE8FFBFB37EB746900AAA078C93D892021F1FA4@eoaexch1.doe.min>
From: Mike Warren <mike@mike-warren.com>

X-Home-Page: http://www.mike-warren.com
Date: 22 Nov 2002 17:55:49 -0700
In-Reply-To:
<FAE8FFBFB37EB746900AAA078C93D892021F1FA4@eoaexch1.doe.min> ("Vincent, Gordon"'s message of "Fri, 22 Nov 2002 17:18:18 -0700")
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"Vincent, Gordon" <Gordon.Vincent@gov.ab.ca> writes:

> This is the first time I've heard about a deadline or that you're in
> fact writing an article. As a trained journalist, I was taught it's
> not only ethical to put that type of information out in the open,
> it's a requisite.

I'm sorry it wasn't clear that I intended to write an article; I said
as much during the question period at Mr. Smith's presentation. I
didn't mean to imply I have a ``looming deadline'', just that Murray
Smith's comments are obviously important to an article about his
presentation, and you had also volunteered to answer such questions
(hence your inclusion in my email).

> So tell me, Mike, have I been doing your homework for you and now
> you're stuck?

No; I'm sorry if that's what I implied.

> I would hope that while you were waiting for information you would
> be paying attention to Industry Canada's own report about economic
> impact of climate change as was detailed in the front-page story in
> the National Post yesterday.

The question I posed to Mr. Smith -- and the information I was
anticipating from him -- was not about general projections regarding
the economic impact of Kyoto specifically but about the general
relationship between GDP grown and emissions growth, a correlative
presumption upon which it seemed that Mr. Smith rested much of his
presentation (and a presumption which seems implicit in the Alberta
Plan).

I am interested in how Mr. Smith came (apparently) to the conclusion
that this correlation is strong and how he concluded that it implies
GDP growth is impossible (or at least hard) without emissions
growth. That is, is it Murry Smith's contention that we must grow our
carbon dioxide emissions in order to grow our economy? Is that
the Alberta Government's position? And if so, why?

> The new study predicts Canada's energy industry in particular will
> see tremendous losses in investment, employment and output by 2010 -
> two years before the treaty is supposed to be fully implemented.

Losses in particular sectors are not necessarily surprising,
economically, when discussing a general shift away from subsidised
CO2-producing industries like the oil sector; it is important to look
at the entirety of an economy. That said, such analysis is certainly
useful but does get slightly away from the trust of my question.

Thanks also for your other reports.

> But Mike, be assured that if I gave you my word, as I did, that I
> was not neglecting your request.

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question. Not to seem
overly picky, but you did volunteer to look into an answer to my
question to Mr. Smith and your response seems somewhat hostile
to me. Sorry if there was some misunderstanding.

- --
mike [at] mike [dash] warren [dot] com
<URL:http://www.mike-warren.com>
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I will continue to update this article as new information arrives. (As of December 9, 2002, no further response has been forthcoming from either Mr. Vincent or Mr. Smith).

name:
email:
URL:
Private mail only; don't publish anywhere.